The time machine

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I have always been fascinated by the future and those who attempt to explore and predict it, such as H.G. Wells, Clarke, Asimov and Toffler, to name a few. Sir Arthur C. Clarke’s most famous prediction on the future is his proposal of geostationary satellite communications published in the Wireless World magazine in 1945. Not considered seriously at the time it became a reality within 20 years with the launching on April 6th, 1965 of Intelsat I Early Bird, the first commercial geostationary communication satellite.

When I entered nursing in the1970s research was predicting problems by the year 2000 as the development of computers would mean individuals having so much spare time, due to computers taking on their work, they would become bored. Instead we now work longer and harder and the incidence of work related stress illnesses is exploding. Unfortunately, those who make predictions based on current data do not always get it right. More worryingly evidence is now being published that today’s children will be the first generation to die before their parents. Perhaps unbelievable, but based on today’s health issues such as lack of exercise, massive increases in obesity, an explosion of binge drinking and work related stress due to long hours and job uncertainty the possibility of ageing parents caring for infirmed and dying children may become reality. Nurse’s and health care services are at the forefront of dealing with the health problems that will arise and hopefully be able to prevent them burdening individuals and society with a critical mass of chronic illness and mortality. Orthopaedics has continued to be the fastest growing specialty only because of the ageing population but what if life expectancy does decrease and diseases of health abuse take over.

My interest in the future was recently lifted by Linda Duxbury at the Canadian Orthopaedic Nursing Conference in Edmonton, Alberta. She is a world renowned expert on ageing and the generational differences, an avid future predictor. What she says has drastic implications for the patients we care for and the way we may need to nurse. Her statistics relate primarily to Canada but the trends and implications are global.

She demonstrated that in comparison to the past 25 years the labour force growth is down by 50% and by the end of this decade will reduce to only 20% of previously with zero growth being reached by 2016. This means that within the next decade for every two people who are retiring there will be less than one person to replace them. Little wonder that in the UK the government is suggesting that we work until 70 years of age. Health care will suffer from the shortages of labour more than most industries and are already feeling the effects. One way of overcoming this is through increasing immigration from less developed countries but the ethics of poaching actual or potential future nurses from those in more need of health care needs very careful consideration. Ironically in the UK up to 15,000 nurses are predicted to be made redundant in the next few months, the majority of these being newly qualified or advanced practitioners in specialties such as orthopaedics.

Can you predict where and what you will be doing in 2, 5 and 10 years time?